Business cycle dating in europe
If European countries used similar criteria to those used in the US for determining economic cycles, the Great Recession in many of them would quite possibly be considered an ongoing five-year slump.Such measurement issues may sound like a matter of minor technical details, but they can have significant real-world implications.Finally, based on the results of the different methods, a consensus business cycle chronology for the German economy is suggested.I gratefully acknowledge comments and suggestions from Klaus Wälde and two anonymous referees.As the British know all too well, their economy since the low point of mid-2009 has not yet climbed even halfway out of the post-crisis hole: GDP is still almost 4% below its previous peak.If European countries used similar criteria to those used in the United States for determining economic cycles, the Great Recession in Britain would quite possibly not have been declared over in the first place.
The research of the second author was supported through a European Community Marie Curie Fellowship, contract HPMF-CT-2000-00761.
This second EABCN macro-finance conference will cover innovative work advancing our knowledge of macro-financial linkages.
Theoretical and empirical contributions are both welcome.
CAMBRIDGE – The release of revised GDP data by the United Kingdom’s Office for National Statistics in late June seemed like an occasion for cheer, because growth had not quite been negative for two consecutive quarters in the winter of 2011-12, as previously thought.
The point, as it was reported, is that a second UK recession following the global financial crisis in 2008 (a “double dip”) had now been erased from the history books, and that the Conservative government would take some satisfaction from this fact. The right question is not whether there have been double (or triple) dips; the question is whether there has been one big recession all along.
Wouter Den Haan (London School of Economics and CEPR), Jesper Lindé (Sveriges Riksbank and CEPR), Junior Maih (Norges Bank) and Dan Waggoner (Atlanta FED) are already confirmed their participation.